Does applying for more lots raise the chance of allotment?

Not in an oversubscribed retail category. Each winning application gets one lot, picked by a draw of lots, so an application for 13 lots has the same chance as one for 1 lot.

What does subscribed 40 times mean?

Bids came in for 40 times the shares on offer in that category. It counts shares, not applications, so on its own it does not say how many people applied.

Can I apply more than once?

Only once per PAN. Two applications under the same PAN count as multiple applications, and all of them can be rejected, not just the second. Each family member can apply with their own PAN and demat account.

Who runs the draw of lots?

The registrar to the issue, which finalises the basis of allotment with the designated stock exchange under SEBI’s rules.

When will I know if I got shares?

The basis of allotment is usually ready one working day after the issue closes. The registrar’s status page, and BSE’s and NSE’s, show the result after that.

IPO Allotment Chance Calculator: Odds of Getting a Lot

In an oversubscribed IPO, retail lots are given out by a draw of lots. Type what you know about the issue and see the chance that one application gets a lot.

How to use it

Pick what you know about the issue.

Number of applications. After the issue closes, the registrar publishes the basis of allotment, with the shares in each category and the number of valid applications. Type the shares in the retail category, the lot size and the applications to get the exact chance.
Times subscribed. While the issue is open, the stock exchanges show how many times each category is subscribed. Type the retail figure. As explained below, this gives the lowest chance the issue can have, unless you also know how many lots the average application asked for.

Then type how many applications you and your family made, each from a different PAN, to see the chance that at least one gets a lot.

How retail allotment works

When the retail category gets bids for more shares than it has, SEBI’s rules give each winning applicant the minimum lot. That fixes the number of winners: the shares in the retail category ÷ the lot size. The winners are picked by a computerised draw of lots among the valid applications. If there are enough shares for every applicant to get a lot, everyone gets one, and the shares left over go in proportion to the bids for more lots.

Because each winning application gets one lot, asking for 13 lots instead of 1 does not raise the chance of getting one. It only blocks more money until the allotment.

Worked example

Company ABC’s IPO keeps 35,00,000 shares for retail investors, in lots of 50 shares: 70,000 lots to give out. The retail category is subscribed 40 times, and the basis of allotment shows 7,00,000 valid retail applications.

The chance for one application is 70,000 ÷ 7,00,000 = 10%, or 1 in 10.
With three applications from three family members’ PANs, the chance that at least one gets a lot is 1 − 0.9 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 27.1%.

From the times subscribed

Times subscribed counts shares, not applications. In the example, 40 times means bids for 14,00,00,000 shares, or 28,00,000 lots. If every application had asked for one lot, there would have been 28,00,000 applications, and the chance would be 70,000 ÷ 28,00,000 = 2.5%, or 1 in 40. The 7,00,000 real applications asked for 4 lots each on average, so the chance was 4 ÷ 40 = 10%. In general:

Chance = average lots per application ÷ times subscribed

Knowing only the times subscribed, take 1 lot per application and you get the lowest chance the issue can give. The real chance is usually higher, because many applicants ask for more than one lot.

More than one application

Each application is a separate draw, so with n applications the chance that at least one gets a lot is 1 − (1 − p)^n, where p is the chance for one. Each application needs its own PAN, demat account and bank account, and each one blocks its own amount until the allotment. Two applications under the same PAN count as multiple applications, and all of them can be rejected.

NII applications

Since April 2022 the NII categories are allotted the same way as retail. In small NII (above ₹2 lakh up to ₹10 lakh) and in big NII (above ₹10 lakh), each winner gets the minimum NII application, the fewest lots worth more than ₹2 lakh, even in big NII. To use the calculator for either, type the shares in that category, and the shares in that minimum application as the lot size. At ₹300 a share and lots of 50, that is 14 lots, or 700 shares.

Where to check your allotment

The basis of allotment is usually finalised one working day after the issue closes. The registrar named in the offer document has an allotment status page where you enter your PAN or application number, and BSE and NSE have one too. Shares reach the demat accounts of those who got them, and money is unblocked for those who did not, by the second working day after the issue closes.

Questions people ask

Does applying for more lots raise the chance of allotment?: Not in an oversubscribed retail category. Each winning application gets one lot, picked by a draw of lots, so an application for 13 lots has the same chance as one for 1 lot.
What does subscribed 40 times mean?: Bids came in for 40 times the shares on offer in that category. It counts shares, not applications, so on its own it does not say how many people applied.
Can I apply more than once?: Only once per PAN. Two applications under the same PAN count as multiple applications, and all of them can be rejected, not just the second. Each family member can apply with their own PAN and demat account.
Who runs the draw of lots?: The registrar to the issue, which finalises the basis of allotment with the designated stock exchange under SEBI’s rules.
When will I know if I got shares?: The basis of allotment is usually ready one working day after the issue closes. The registrar’s status page, and BSE’s and NSE’s, show the result after that.

IPO allotment chance calculator